THE ONLOOKER

Indian burses welcomed the verdict regarding the stability of the Government. The sensex and nifty has risen remarkably to -day i.e 23rd July 08. Well it may be initial euphoria as well. One cannot be certain that days of the bear are over. Better wait and watch is advisable for serious investor, day trader are indulging usual betting and making their money. Most of them off course making up their loses what they might have incurred earlier. However there is some good news in international scenario. The crude price is cooling down, though that also cannot be taken as certainty. With the crude price coming down, if at all, reining inflation can be easier. The progress of monsoon is hopeful and likely to meet the expectation. Though the growth rate is under pressure in the current quarter and likely to affect the projected growth rate at the year end. Still if the situation improve day by day, than it would not as bad as the market Gurus have been predicting. The mutual funds are sitting...

Indian stock markets are currently rocking due to ongoing political crisis. The stability of government is the major factor. If the present government escape the fall, appears to be imminent due to lefts joint opposition on nuclear deal, the market may (watch my word “may”, it cannot be assured!) look up. In fact the global oil price is showing sign to calm down. The last crude price fall was very sharp it was around $20, last week in the international market. The fall was registered in both New York and London “Brent” crude prices. In India the market is not watching the triangular situation, the stability of government, the inflation and the global crude price. With the ray of better days ushering in the crude market, to-morrow is the d-day, the government stability for till it completes its tenure will be confirmed; last but most important factor is the inflation. The measures taken up, by the central bank, are likely to show results in two months now. Prices of some cereals and fo...

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Recently ended G8 summit and India`s move a step forward towards nuke deal; has raised lot of hues in media locally and internationally. Indian growth story, despite of it`s current depression due to uncontrollable inflationary pressure, is gaining popularity. Political mileage is being extracted to maximum extent by the ruling parties and its allies. Though; the leftist have withdrawn their support, portraying a bleak outcome of the deal in future, for imaginary reasons, best understood by them. The Government seems to be unperturbed. For the common men, especially the educated urban people, the inflation and the nuke deal both are important but the former merits immediate attention. The crude price is making record every passing day, breaking the previous high with no sign of respite, makes it impossible for India or any other developing nation to rein inflation. Indian growth story is passing, albeit hopefully for short period, though a bad time. But is the growth story consistent...

Inflation is word what perhaps a primary school boy is getting use to. So much the pressure of inflation affected all strata of society in India or greater part of the globe. In India as with everything else, even inflation is not without its doze of hypocrisy! It is one of the few countries where a democratic Government juggles with the figure. Most of the developed and developing countries use Consumer Price Index (CPI) to calculate inflation, but for India it is Whole Sale Price Index (WPI). Government`s plea is that they cannot collect the data always on which the CPI is based! Ridiculous! WPI includes 100 out of 435 commodities, what are not important from consumer point view. In fact the retail price what consumer pays is much higher than the wholes sale price. In recent months there has been more than 30% hike in several commodities what are for common consumptions. In some cases it is even 60%! Whereas the latest Government figure declared 11.63% rate of inflation. Imagine the...

The inflation in tandem with spiraling oil price is taking heavy toll on stock indices in Indian as well as all the major global burses. The south bound journey of stock indices is continued all over. No one seems to know how long they will last or when they will bottom out! Individual investors are shaky to burn their fingers; institutional investors seem to have diverted their fund towards more rewarding commodity market where speculation in oil is high. This may be another reason for the oil price`s apparently sky bound journey. The recent declaration of Iraq to open up their oil fields to corporate sectors is likely to take time. In the mean time Saudi Arabia has promised to increase their output from this month but nothing seems to work. Every day the oil price is touching new high and so the inflation. However, if we compare the different stock markets, we find that the countries which are commodity exporters are better than those economies which are net commodity importers. For...