Friday, June 13, 2008

OIL TO SPOIL

The oil price rise is presumably out of fear of irregular supply from Nigeria, Venezuela and Middle East crisis in Asia. Beside this off course, the hands of middlemen and OPEC countries are conspicuous. In terms of extracting exorbitant price the OPEC countries are keeping crude oil production at low ebb. These countries have nothing except oil. Their fortune will dry up along with their oil wells; this they know well. So, they are all out making hay till the oil wells are dried up. That way you cannot blame them, their lack of concern for those who are going starve due to oil price hike and resulting chain reaction causing all around inflation, is historically usual. The rich countries like US, West European counties, in far eastern Asia like Japan are dolling out subsidies to absorb the shock for time being. But they too are feeling the tremors, keep afar the poor sub-Saharan countries, after all stark naked has nothing to lose! This meteoric rise of oil price, has chosen a time, when developing countries like India, Brazil, China and others, were about take off for new economical flights. Most of them with their rising GDP, higher growth rate of industrial, agricultural production, ever increasing exports of goods and services, were about to test of globalization’s fruits. At this point of time such development is truly frustrating. With demand receding all around, in the US, European countries as well as their domestic market, the industrial production has to be curtailed. This is likely to cause firing the employees, what is already started in some private banks and software giants in India. Though the concerned companies are denying that this measure is being taken to absorb the impact of US recession, obviously caused by initially sub-prime crisis then the oil price spiraling. The question is the timing; why now, neither earlier nor later, at the time when these sleeping giants are about to awake fully and stand on their feet; these crisis are raising such furor that this time they may faint!

But is the story that simple? That some greedy countries are squeezing the world, putting them all in the same crusher? Can it ever happen? Specially, big daddy US and European uncles, who ruled the world for centuries, are belittled like sitting ducks! Some eye-brows are raised already. First of all, it is heard that the global actual oil reserve is far less than estimated. So, this planet will go dry sooner than what has been projected by experts so far. Our planet, is supposed to have 12000 billion barrels of crude in reserve till date. This is supposing to last, keeping with the growth rate of automobile industries and population for few more decades only. But off late, in the market, a rumor was airing that the actual reserve is far less and never the oil companies have disclosed how much they have truly exploited. It is this rumor that pressed the panic trigger. Who stands to benefit? Not the OPEC ( Oil producing exporting countries) countries alone, but all who are associated with the business. The oil companies, the traders, the speculators, the hedgers even many governments, by the way of different taxes on its oil imports. Governments mean you understand, after all no government is robotic, and barring very few, no human is totally free from greed. So, the new deals, new bargain will result with more healthy kick-backs to them who are dealing.

Let us try to find out the true tone in the chorus. First of all , the global estimation of oil reserve is calculated taking only the known source of oil fields. The estimation is carried out in a conservative way , so that actual figure always far exceeds the projection. This is precautionary measure the experts usually take, to keep the consumption low thus prolonging preservation further. There are ample possibilities that the rumors are baseless. As no agency or country ever expressed the same doubt. Over and above, the reserve in un- explored areas are not taken. Every day, new oil fields are found in many countries, especially in India, where oil exploration is seriously undertaken recently and promise immense potentialities. India, Brazil , China and few more may hold the oil taps on the hole of empty tanks of the rest of the world in future. Right now, it is their economy, is going to get the bruise brutally.
May be this evil design has scrupulously planned to bail out some big economy which have taken plunge and needs immediate relief at the cost of these developing economy. After all, the riches, in a pursuit of survival, seek the organ of poor for transplant. This is God`s design!!

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